Friday, October 28, 2005

A massive surge in US casualties - evidence of previous under-reporting?

New data just released shows a large increase in American casualties reported last week. 771 wounded are reported for the week 19th-25 October compared to 157 for the previous week! A quick glance suggests that these figures may result from a publishing of backlogged unreported casulaties from earlier this year. An analysis of the wounded:dead ratio should help to clarify what appears to have been a previous systematic under reporting of the number of wounded.

If this is indeed the case why should the back log be published now? With the Bush regieme under alot of pressure this week and reports of rifts even at the highest levels between Cheney and Bush it does make interesting timing...

Updated 04/11/05: It is now clear that the apparent surge was due to mis-reporting by the US DOD. However, in the last 3 weeks US casualties have increased by over 600. The trend remains upwards with a 4 week moving average of about 20 fatalities and 150 wounded per week. For full details go here