Showing posts with label British Casualties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label British Casualties. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

Monitoring casualties in Iraq and AfghanistanTroops in theatre: 7,800
Duration of war: 6 years, 8 months
UK military fatalities: 116
Last reported death: 18th August
Casualty data analysed to: June 15
UK military casualties in 2007: 1442
UK military casualties in 2008: 713*
Total war casualties: data not released


The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and aim to illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated as and when data is released by the MOD. The fatality count given above is updated on a daily basis. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of
war to British forces and is
useful for following trends in the conflict.

The analysis and format used here is the same as for the Iraq casualty monitoring page. Comparison between the two conflicts is therefore relatively straight forward and the summary graphs indicate, that in both theatres, British troops experienced a significantly higher burden of casualties in 2007 compared to previous years. The situation in 2008 remains unstable and unpredictable, with further heavy fighting in Afghanistan combined with strategic adaptation by anti-UK forces, and the continuing presence of British troops in southern Iraq. The recent spike in British fatalities in the Afghan war will be reflected in the statistics for June.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest MOD reporting period.

NB
To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.


Graph of monthly British combat casualties in Afghan war

Graph of total British casualties in Afghan war

Graph of annual British casualties in Afghan war

Friday, August 15, 2008

British Lay the Ground for Major Troop Withdrawals from Iraq

In a move, apparently designed create the perceptions necessary for a major troop withdrawals of British troops, a senior commander has been talking to the media about improvements in Basra. With the British army struggling to maintain the capabilities to fight effectively in two medium scale campaigns the need to withdraw more troops from Iraq is pressing. [BBC]

Thursday, June 19, 2008

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

Monitoring casualties in Iraq and AfghanistanNumber of troops in theatre: 4,000
Duration of war: 5 years, 3 months
UK military fatalities: 176
Last reported death: 26th March
Casualty data analysed to: May 31
UK military casualties in 2007: 1950
UK military casualties in 2008: 524*
Total war casualties: data not released

Below, we present a regularly updated series of graphs that show the available official UK MOD data on casualties in Iraq. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information. Our analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last five years there have been marked improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for both Iraq and Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest MOD reporting period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

Graph of monthly British combat casualties in Iraq warThe first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. We now know that the data provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict. The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September last year up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished.

As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.

Graph of total British casualties in Iraq warThe second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aeromedical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may be approaching 4,500.

This is not necessarily out of the bounds of possibility - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.


Graph of annual British casualties in Iraq warThe third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. The last column of the chart will show the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

Trend in British fatality rate in Iraq warThe last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

The above graphs are updated after the MOD has released data for a complete month. Fatality figures are updated on a daily basis as news is available. For information on casualties suffered by the US and other members of the occupying force we recommend Coalition Casualty Count.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Four British Troops Killed in Afghanistan

In the largest loss of life experienced by British forces so far this year, 4 soldiers were killed by an explosion near Lashkar Gah in Afghanistan yesterday. [MOD]

In the last ten days, 9 British troops have been killed in the Afghan war.

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Britain to Increase Troop Numbers in Afghan War

Within a few days of the deaths of five paratroops in the Helmand province the UK is planning to increase its deployment in Afghanistan. [BBC Online]

Update: The statement by Defence Secretary Des Browne to Parliament on Monday 16 June 2008 can be read here.

Monday, June 09, 2008

British Death Toll Reaches 100 in Afghanistan

Three British paratroopers were killed by a suicide attack in Afghanistan on Sunday, bringing the total UK deaths so far to 100.

It is notable that although the war started nearly 7 years ago, almost all the British casualties have occurred in the last three years. Further, while it is the fatalities that make the news, the much larger numbers of injured and seriously injured casualties are hardly mentioned. For example, in 2008 alone, up to the end of April, total UK military casualties are estimated to number approximately 284.

Friday, April 25, 2008

No reduction in British troop numbers in Iraq during 2008

The Ministry of Defence have announced that the planned reduction of British troops in Iraq will now not occur. The number of troops will remain at around 4,000 when the next Force Package deploys in June 2008, Defence Secretary Des Browne announced to Parliament yesterday. [MOD]

Saturday, March 29, 2008

British ground forces join fighting in Basra as ICRC voice concerns over impact on civilians

British ground forces have joined the fighting in Basra to bolster the offensive by Iraqi government forces against the Mehdi Army. [BBC]

On the same day the International Committe of the Red Cross is concerned about the humanitarian impact of continued fighting in Basra and Baghdad. Its staff in the two cities say that many people are running out of food and water and most shops are reported to be closed. The supply of electricity in Basra and in parts of Baghdad is intermittent or has been cut and hospitals are running out of medical stocks, food and fuel.

Patients' families are reportedly bringing their own small generators to some hospitals in the capital to ensure sufficient power supplies during treatment. Many medical workers are unable to reach hospitals because of the continuing fighting. [ICRC]

A spokesman for the British army, Maj Holloway, said that the action against militiamen in the Basra area was a "complicated operation". "I think we need to be prepared for this to run for a while", he said. [BBC]

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

British Casualty Toll Described in Herald Article

An article published in today's Herald newspaper paints an over view of British casualties in both wars and draws particular attention to the high level of losses experienced in Afghanistan. The under or un-reported incidence of disabling injuries is a part of the casualty burden that is still often unappreciated.

The frightening intensity of combat in Helmand was exposed last year when the Royal Anglians revealed that they had fired one million rounds, killed 1,028 Taliban and lost nine of their own men in a six-month tour of duty.

The 650-strong regiment sustained a further 135 wounded or seriously injured in the fighting in the Sangin Valley, having to "winkle out the Taliban at the point of a bayonet", according to Lieutenant-Colonel Stuart Carver, its commanding officer.

By the end of the tour, the Anglians had lost almost 22% of their manpower to enemy action, over twice the "going rate" for battle casualties.

One officer who spoke to The Herald said: "The real story lies in the number of wounded with life-threatening injuries. It's more than half of those listed as sustaining battlefield wounds. At least 50 men have had limbs amputated, lost the use of arms or legs or lost eyes since 2003."

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

British Casualty Updates for January 2008

Updates of casualty data for January 2008 have now been published for the casualty monitor projects for British forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Afghanistan round up

Arguably, the most notable development so far this year has been the apparent near breakdown in cooperation between the governments with NATO forces in Afghanistan. The US has been highly critical of many of its allies, including the UK, citing lack of skill in fighting the insurgency in the south. In a similar vain, they have harangued Germany for not engaging in the fierce fighting in the south and are trying to force a larger commitment from other allies. The US defense secretary, Robert Gates, has even cast doubt over the whole future of NATO because of difficulties experienced in Afghanistan.

Canada was threatening to pullout its troops unless more support is provided. In contrast, the British government continues its commitment to the war and announces the largest deployment of paratroops since the second world war. However, relationships between the Kabul government that was installed following the US-led invasion, and one of Americas key allies in that operation, the British, have reached a low. Mistrust, derived partly from Britain's historical role in the country' appears to be contributing to a serious breakdown in relationships.

In addition to the problems of commitment to the war by the US-led forces, there have been a range of reports illustrating the negative impacts of the war on the Afghan people.

At the end of last year we learnt that Afghanistan has dropped a place in a UN global human development index, which ranks countries based on their citizens’ economic income, life expectancy and literacy rate.

A report out earlier this month by the
International Crisis Group (ICG) concluded that the international community must “accept mistakes” it has made in the past six years or more in rebuilding and developing Afghanistan, and should now “summon the means and resolve to make a decisive change”.

The report “Afghanistan: The need for international resolve”, released on 6 February, comes amidst growing calls for a dramatic change in the way international donors have engaged militarily and politically, and spent over US$15 billion on reconstruction, development and humanitarian activities in Afghanistan since late 2001. This follows a critique of the international response in Afghanistan by Oxfam, who said that the aid effort has been
“too centralised, top-heavy and insufficient”.

To round off a range of dismal assessments, the former leader of the UK Liberal Democrat Party Paddy Ashdown - who Kabul rejected as a UN envoy to Afghanistan - said in a BBC interview that the situation in Afghanistan was dire. "I think Afghanistan is a failed state, I don't think it's a question of it being on the edge of it," Lord Ashdown said.

Iraq round up

To start on an optimistic point, we were pleased to note that January 2008 was the first month for well over a year during which there were no British fatalities in Iraq.

The Turkish invasion of a region in Northern Iraq, that began on February 21, is continuing and straining relationships between the government of Iraq and the US administration. The full humanitarian impact on the civilian population and casualties in the area is yet to emerge.

US Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates, has announced that the 'surge' of US troops is likely to continue after July due to the fragility of the gains that have been made. With the publication of a new military manual there are indications that the US is trying to place the 'hearts and minds' element of counter insurgency much higher up their agenda.

The legality of the initial invasion of Iraq was brought up again by a hearing held by the law lords in London. Military Families Against the War (MFAW) have been demanding a public enquiry into the decision to invade.
The law lords considered the mothers' argument that servicemen and women have the right not to have their lives jeopardised in illegal conflicts.

The illegal killing of civilian prisoners by British troops is also back in the news after it was revealed that the army legal chief raised concerns about a number of deaths as long ago as May 2003, but was repeatedly ignored "at all levels" of the Government and military.

The Commons Defence Select Committee published a report on the health care provided for UK servicemen. Noting that the health care provided was generally first rate, they also drew attention to the long term problems of post traumatic stress disorder and the failure in providing adequate case identification and care.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Afghanistan: Analysis of British Casualties During 2007

An analysis of casualty data up until the end of 2007 has now been published for the British military in Afghanistan. Total British casualties for the year stand at 1442, including 42 fatalities and 572 aeromedical evacuations.

The trend in MOD classified combat casualties shows a slow rise in the intensity of conflict from January with a peak of casualties in May. Thereafter, the casualty rate remains elevated with a some suggestion of a decrease from October onwards. With the British military presence being increased further and the strategic battle continuing for control of large parts of Afghanistan, further fierce fighting is expected throughout 2008.

Overall, the number of casualties
experienced by British troops in Afghanistan remained lower than in Iraq during 2007. However, the trend in casualty rates reversed during 2007, with the end of year 3 month combat casualty average for Afghanistan now being about twice as high as Iraq.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Iraq: British Casualty Data for 2007

An update of casualty data up until the end of 2007 has now been published for the casualty monitor project for Iraq. Total British casualties for the year stand at 1950, including 47 fatalities and 603 aeromedical evacuations.

The most striking feature of the pattern of the statisitics is the steep rise in combat casualties during the first half of the year, a continuation of a trend starting in autumn 2006. This increase then abruptly reversed following the British withdrawal from Basra City. Casualty rates towards the end of the year ended up returning to the levels seen in the summer of 2006.

With the British military presence much reduced and their strategic ambitions minimised, it can be hoped that casualties on both sides will continue to remain relatively low during 2008.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Iraqis Celebrate British Handover in Basra

The official handover of Basra province by the British occupation forces to the Iraqi authorities was marked by celebrations in Basra today. But what was achieved and how does it affect ordinary Iraqis? Why did it happen, and was this a real 'handover' anyway? Here are some comments from the mainstream media.
"Meanwhile inside the city which British troops have not entered since their withdrawal from Saddam Hussein's former palace three-and-a-half months ago, Iraqis paraded and celebrated what they called an "historic day".

The handover of control of security in the province is the biggest landmark yet on the path to full British withdrawal from Iraq. It comes at a time when extra forces may be needed in Afghanistan." [ITN]

“We knew we would succeed [in toppling Saddam], there was never any doubt, and we all knew that we would then enter a honeymoon period of peace-support operations which would be vital in winning hearts and minds. But when the initial fighting was over we were left with a force smaller than that which was based in Northern Ireland.” [The Times]

"The British have never sought to maintain the same level of control as the Americans did over the provinces the U.S. oversaw after the 2003 invasion. Since elections in 2005, southern Iraq has been under the domain of religious Shiite parties and their militia allies.

All of which means the British are handing over something local power players already possess.

"I don't think there is a handover. You've never had real British control of Basra or the area," said Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "What you are really watching is a sort of nominal transfer of authority to the central government and Iraqi forces." [Associated Press]
Last week a British infantry officer wrote on the internet forum Arrse: “To anyone who thinks we have made it a better place, we haven’t.” [The Times]
Finally, this is by no means a British withdrawal. At the end of May 2007 there were 5,500 British troops in Iraq. By Christmas 2007, The MOD expects there to be around 4,500 and that this number will fall to around 2,500 from next Spring. No date has been set for withdrawal.

The British misadventure in Iraq is far from over.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Interview with RAF Liasion Officer Reveals MOD Casualty Figures have been Drastically Under-reported

A recent interview, published on the MOD web site, has revealed that at least half of the British troops medically evacuated to the UK in 2007 have been combat casualties. This is a new development that reflects the increased intensity of fighting. Squadron Leader Kenny Duffy, the aeromedical liaison officer at the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine at Selly Oak describes the work of his unit.
"Each year we produce statistics with a breakdown of those aeromedically evacuated. The total for each month includes disease and non-battle injuries from across the world. Historically, the numbers of casualties suffering from disease and non-battle injury has always been much greater than the number of battlefield injuries."
"Although statistics have still not been completed for the year 2007, to date this is the first year the number of battlefield injuries has been higher than disease – there has been a steady rise in the operational tempo."
This apparently benign omission in fact reveals that figures for combat casualties have been consistently under-reported by the MOD.

For example, current MOD statistics say that only 65 service personnel have been seriously or very seriously wounded in Iraq during 2007. However, we also know that there have been 510 medical evacuations and, following the published interview, we now know that at least half of these were evacuated because of combat injuries. That means that in reality at least 255 serious combat casualties have occurred. In other words, the MOD are only reporting a quarter (26%) of serious combat casualties! A shocking level of data manipulation and obfuscation.

Perhaps the situation in Iraq is unusual and not reflected elsewhere. So lets also look at the data from the war in Afghanistan. Here the official MOD figures report 47 seriously or very seriously injured combat casualties so far during 2007. However, the medical evacuation figure is 451, which equates to at least 225 serious or very serious combat casualties. In this context the the MOD appears to have been reporting a mere 21% of these casualties in their official version of events.

It could be argued that the combat casualties that are medivaced are not necessarily seriously injured. But why evacuate if these people if their injuries are not serious? Clearly, these latest, perhaps inadvertent, revaluations indicate that MOD data on classified combat casualties is unreliable.

This has implications for the graphical analysis we present on this site. In particular, we now know that the graphs showing annual comparisons of classified combat casualties are presenting only a small proportion of the actual casualty burden. They do remain useful in identifying trends in the conflict but are of little utility for understanding the real casualty burden. The graphs showing the cumulative total monthly casualties and the figures for the year to date are much better indicators of burden.

Currently, these show that total British casualties in 2007 stand at 1564 in Iraq and 1173 in Afghanistan.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

British Casualty Monitor Update 23.10.07: Decline in casualties continues in Iraq but more troops planned for Afghanistan

Yesterday, we posted on the delayed release of the fortnightly casualty data from the Ministry of Defence. This morning, purely by coincidence, the data on British casualties from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has been made available on the MOD www site. This release covers the period up to 30th September. In Iraq, total British military casualties for 2007 have now reached 1506, while in Afghanistan, total casualties for 2007 now stand at 1129.

The ceasefire and withdrawal from Basra City at the beginning of September can be clearly associated with a marked and continuing decline in British casualties.

However, in Afghanistan, casualties have risen for the previous 3 months and, if the trend continues, casualties from this war will exceed those from Iraq before the end of the year.

News round up:

The MOD have announced a massive increase in compensation for soldiers suffering multiple serious injuries. Less good news for the armed forces concerns a new court case being brought against the MOD. It is alleged that horrific torture and mutilation of Iraqi prisoners took place following a fierce battle in May 2004.

Current events in Iraq appear to be taking another turn for the worse as one of the anticipated spin-offs from the invasion, open conflict between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, moves closer.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan the lack of commitment from other NATO members, combined with the continued fierce fighting, is leading Britain to considering sending more troops. Britain already has 7,700 troops committed to the war but the continued presence of Canada and the Netherlands in the south of Afghanistan is now in doubt.

Monday, October 22, 2007

MOD Delay Release of Casualty Updates

This is a brief update for those who are wondering why the Iraq and Afghanistan casualty tracking data has not been updated according to the normal schedule. A delay has occurred because the fortnightly data release has been issued by the Ministry of Defence. No explanation has been issued. The last data release covered the period up to 15th September and the next update was expected to have been released the week beginning 15th October. However, as of this morning (22nd October), no information has been made available. Will update as soon as we hear more.

How Many British Casualties Require High-dependency Clinical Care?

Radio 4 Today addressed the issue of why the Ministry of Defence refuses to say how many injured soldiers are being cared for in high-dependency wards? The MOD has tried in the past to claim that patient confidentiality prevented them releasing the data. This is clearly little more than obfuscation. An application for ethical approval from a research ethics committee would not even be required for the release of anonymised data, and such data is, or at least should be, kept by the MOD for monitoring and resource planning purposes. As someone who sits on a research ethics committe myself this is transparent; on the Today programme this morning a national expert on clinical ethics, Dr Tucker, confirmed that the MOD position was untenable.

John Humphries interviewed the Defence Minister Derek Twigg to try and obtain some clarity on why the MOD refuse to release the data and what the numbers actually are. The interview can be heard here (.ram).

The minister stated that there are currently 24 high dependency patients in the MOD medical facilities at Selly Oak, and 45 in Hedley Court. Strangely however, he refused to say how many patients there were outside of these facilities, but asserted that the number was less than 5. Why would he claim to be certain of the situation but yet be unwillinging to state what the number of patients is? There appears to be two possible explanations. One is that they just don't know, they have lost track of the destination of the cases after dischage or just don't have the data. The other plausible explanation is that the MOD wishes to somehow prevent the tracking or follow up of these cases.

While it may be true that there are currently about 73 high-dependency cases under inpatient treatment, the numbers who have survived the initial stages of clinical care and are now under out-patient treatment or rehabilitation will be much higher. From the official figures published on the MOD www site we can see that, up to 15th September 2007, they are reporting 205 very seriously or seriously injured casualties in Iraq and 81 in Afghanistan. Another striking statistic is that since April 2006 there have been 1189 medical evacuations of personnel from Iraq. Current treatment figures will only represent a proportion of people who have suffered catatrophic injuries.

Knowing just how many young men an women have lost mutiple limbs, suffered brain damage, or other horrific injuries is something the British Government would much prefer remains obscure and uncertain.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

British Casualty Monitor Update 04.10.07: Uncertain troop reductions in Iraq while fighting continues unabated in Afghanistan

The fortnightly update of Ministry of Defence data on British casualties from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is now available, up to 15th September. In Iraq, total British military casualties for 2007 have now reached 1438, while in Afghanistan, total casualties for 2007 now stand at 1069.

As with the previous update, the data from the first half of September shows a continuing decrease in British casualties in Iraq. The impact of the withdrawal from Basra City at the beginning of September, combined with the ceasefire negociated with elements of the resistance in Southern Iraq, appears to have dramatically reduced British casualties over the last few weeks.

However, the same is not true in Afghanistan, where fighting continues and casualties continue to mount.

News round up:

The army chief's concern over public support for the British military continues in public. But as Prime Minister Brown announces Iraq troop cuts during a surprise visit to Iraq the debate opens on just how much was this a real reduction and how how was just 'a neat trick'. What was clear from his annoucement however was that there are no plans for a full withdrawal in the near future. One has to wonder how long the current ceasefire with the resistance in Southern Iraq can last, following this clarification of strategy.

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the US commander pondered over how much fighting will be required by the British next spring; and this just to retake ground won already 'won'.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

British Casualty Monitor Update 20.09.07: UK casualties decline in Iraq

The fortnightly update of Ministry of Defence data on British casualties from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has now been completed up to 31st August. In Iraq, total casualties for 2007 have now reached 1379, while in Afghanistan, total casualties for 2007 have crossed a notable threshold, and now stand at 1001.

However, the data from August does show some good news. The impact of the withdrawal from Basra City at the beginning of September has yet to be reflected in the statistics for Iraq but the ceasefire, negotiated with elements of the resistance as part of that withdrawal, already seems to have led to a significant reduction in UK casualties. The three month average combat casualty rate showed a notable reduction for the first time in over a year, with casualties dropping by about half between July and August.

In Afghanistan, the 3 month average combat casualty rate has also reduced but casualties in August did actually increase compared to July. The trend in this conflict remains uncertain.

News round up:

Debate continued on whether Britain is failing its armed forces at home with reports of soldiers and their families ‘living in disgraceful conditions’.

In Afghanistan, the Telegraph reported that British troops are left without medics, an accusation that forced an official response from the Ministry of Defence.

Meanwhile, despite the British withdrawal from Basra and plans for troop withdrawals, the prospect of further conflict in the region escalated. Fox news reported that U.S. officials were crafting plans for bombing Iran, and the path to this new war was sketched out in further detail, as Bush was described as setting America up for war with Iran. With that in mind, the US requested deployment of British troops to the Iranian border has to viewed with some concern.

Monday, September 03, 2007

British Casualty Monitor Update: 03.09.2007

The fortnightly update of Ministry of Defence data on British casualties from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has now been completed for the period up to August 15th. In Iraq, total casualties for 2007 have now reached 1321, while in Afghanistan, total casualties for 2007 so far now stand at 924.

We have now also added a graph of fatality rates, in addition to total numbers, for British troops since the start of the Iraq war.

Resentment and pull-back in Iraq

The rising fatalities illustrated by this analysis seem to be feeding into a growing and publicly stated resentment within the armed services. The BBC report:
"A belief that Iraq is unwinnable, fears that Afghanistan could go the same way and an overwhelming feeling that the government has not looked after the Armed Forces properly in return for the sacrifices they make"
Pull back and withdrawals continue, with the British leaving one base in Basra and, according to this official statement from the MOD, the pull back to the last remaining base at the airport is expected in the next few days. The Times and others are reporting that, in fact, the pull-out was completed last night. This is obviously not to the liking of all.
"A senior United States military adviser has expressed "frustration" at British forces in southern Iraq. Gen Jack Keane, architect of the US "surge", said the British are more focused on training Iraqi troops than controlling "deteriorating" security."
Although, Gordon Brown has ruled out setting a timetable for the final withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, saying they still have "an important job to do", the first public signs of real divisions between George Bush and Gordon Brown over Iraq emerged. The American President said:
"We need all our coalition partners. I understand that everybody's got their own internal politics. My only point is that whether it be Afghanistan or Iraq, we've got more work to do."
However, the former head of the British army, Gen Sir Mike Jackson, and another experienced senior officer from the Iraq war, Maj General Tim Cross, both poured severe criticism on the US strategy in Iraq, calling it "intellectually bankrupt".

Tensions in Afghanistan between US and UK forces


In Afghanistan, the British have gone on the record to request US special forces pull out of Helmand to reduce civilian casualties and start to try and re-build a hearts and minds approach.

The lethality of US air power once again led to British casualties and questions why it always seems to happen to them. And in terms of the future for the British in Afghanistan? A parliamentary committee released a report back in July with stark if carefully worded warnings:
"The language of the report is careful, measured. But there is no mistaking the central message - things are going badly, alarmingly wrong in Afghanistan."