Afghanistan: UN Reports Highest Annual Civillian Casualty Rate So Far in 2008

The Human Rights Unit of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported this week that 2008 saw the highest number of civilian casualties in the Afghan war so far. A total of 2,118 are reported to have been killed which is the highest recorded since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001.

This figure represents an increase of almost 40 per cent compared to 2007, when 1,523 people lost their lives in the conflict.

Of the 2,118 casualties reported between 1 January and 31 December 2008, 55 per cent of them were attributed to anti-government forces and 39 per cent to pro-government forces. The remaining 6% were not attributed. These data contrast with UN reports in 2007 which indicated that NATO led forces were responsible for the majority of civilian casualties.

The vast majority of the civilians killed by anti-government forces died as a result of suicide and improvised explosive devises.

Air-strikes were responsible for the largest percentage (64 per cent) of civilian deaths attributed to pro-government forces, with night-time raids being a continuing source of civilian deaths.

[UNAMA]

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Analysis for 2008

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

This latest analysis confirms the continued low level of British casualties in Iraq while fighting continues to intensify in the Afghan war. Updates to these graphs are now being made at 3 month intervals.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

Duration of war: 7 years, 4 months
Troops in theatre: 8,000
Casualty data analysed to: Dec 31st
UK military fatalities: 137
UK military casualties in 2007: 1442
UK military casualties in 2008: 1857*
Total UK casualties: data not released by MOD

The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and aim to illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated about every 3 months. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of war to British forces and is useful for following trends in the conflict.

The analysis and format used here is similar to the Iraq casualty monitoring page.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the analysis period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

Duration of war: 5 years, 10 months
Number of troops in theatre: 4,100
Casualty data analysed to: Dec 31st
UK military fatalities: 178
UK military casualties in 2007: 1950
UK military casualties in 2008: 1202*
Total UK casualties: data not released by MOD

Below, we present a series of graphs that show the available official UK MOD data on casualties in Iraq. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information. Our analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last five years there have been marked improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for both Iraq and Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest analysis period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. We now know that the data provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict. The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September 2006 up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September 2007. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished with a small peak associated with fighting in early 2008. Since then casualties have remained very low with no combat fatalities reported since March 2008.

As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.

The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aeromedical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may now exceed 5,000.

This is not necessarily out of the bounds of possibility - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. Casualties in 2008 have remained low. The last column of the chart, when included, shows the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

The last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

The above graphs are updated at around 3 monthly intervals. For more real time information we recommend Coalition Casualty Count.

Civilian Casualty Monitoring Work in Afghanistan: MOD Targets Human Rights Worker

In an apparent attempt to hinder the civilian casualty monitoring work of Human Rights Watch (HRW) in Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence have tried to smear one of their researchers, Rachel Reid. [Channel 4, Scotsman, Mail Online]

Reid writes that the MoD "whispered into the ear of the Sun" about about the two meetings she had with a Col McNally at the Nato military HQ in Kabul, and with a nudge and a wink insinuated that they were involved in a "close" relationship. With Col McNally now also under arrest for possible breach of the official secrets act just what is the MOD up and why?

It appears that a recent report from HRW which is severly critical of the US military investigation into the killing of civilians during a 2008 airstrike on Azizabad may be the reason. In a letter to the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on Jan 15th 2009 they claim the military investigation was deeply flawed, provide detailed analysis of its findings and conclude that weaknesses in the report summary "call into question the depth of the Defense Department’s commitment to institute reforms that would reduce civilian casualties."

The increasing civilian casualty burden in the Afghan war and increasingly pessimistic reports on the chances of a US/NATO victory seem to be making both the US and UK governments more and more keen to control the availability of information. Getting to know what is really happening is clearly not going to be getting any easier. It may well be a coincidence, but interestingly the MOD had recently blocked public access to British military casualty information from Afghanistan. While data sheets detailing casualties in Iraq were still still freely downloadable the comparable information for Afghanistan was password protected for some days. Public access to the information now appears to have been restored.

Plans for Withdrawal of British Forces from Iraq Released

Concrete plans for the withdrawal of Britain troops from Southern Iraq and their replacement with US forces were widely reported in the press today. Citing an unnamed defence source, papers revealed that Britain will start withdrawing most of its 4,000 troops from Iraq in March, with plans to leave only 400 personnel by mid-2009. [Reuters, BBC, Guardian]

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Updates for August - October 2008

Updates of casualty data up to October 31 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Updates to these graphs are now being made at 3 month intervals. This latest analysis show a continued low level of British casualties in Iraq in contrast to the recent summer surge of fighting in the Afghan war.

Famine Looms in Afghanistan this Winter?

A British defence think tank, the RUSI, is predicting famine in Afghanistan this winter due to a combination of rising food prices and a summer drought.

"While the eyes of the world have focused on violence which is increasingly terrorist in character, an estimated 8.4 million Afghans, perhaps a third of the nation, are now suffering from 'chronic .. food insecurity'," RUSI analyst Paul Smyth said in a briefing note.

"Whatever the effect of insurgent violence on the UN-mandated mission in Afghanistan, it is widespread hunger and malnutrition that will place a greater obstacle in its progress."

More...

UN Investigation Finds US Bombs Kill 90 Civilians in Afghanistan

From the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (26.08.2008)

"Following reports of large numbers of civilian casualties caused during military operations in Shindand district of Herat province, UNAMA’s human rights team has now returned from a mission to the affected area to investigate these reports.

This team met with the District Governor and local elders yesterday. They also interviewed people from a number of households in Nawabad village who confirmed to us that at around midnight on the 21st August, foreign and Afghan military personnel entered the village of Nawabad in the Azizabad area of Shindand district. Military operations lasted several hours during which air strikes were called in. The destruction from aerial bombardment was clearly evident with some 7-8 houses having been totally destroyed and serious damage to many others. Local residents were able to confirm the number of casualties, including names, age and gender of the victims.

Investigations by UNAMA found convincing evidence, based on the testimony of eyewitnesses, and others, that some 90 civilians were killed, including 60 children, 15 women and 15 men. 15 other villagers were wounded or otherwise injured."

More...

British Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq - Updates for July 2008

Updates of casualty data up to July 31 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Apologies for the delay in posting these updates, which show a continued low level of British casualties in Iraq in contrast to a surge in the Afghan war.

British Lay the Ground for Major Troop Withdrawals from Iraq

In a move, apparently designed create the perceptions necessary for a major troop withdrawals of British troops, a senior commander has been talking to the media about improvements in Basra. With the British army struggling to maintain the capabilities to fight effectively in two medium scale campaigns the need to withdraw more troops from Iraq is pressing. [BBC]

Serious Concern Over Rising Civillian Casualties in Afghanistan

The Agency Coordinating Body For Afghan Relief (ACBAR), which claims to represent 100 national and international NGOs working in Afghanistan, has expressed grave concern about the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the serious impact on civilians. They report a surge in the number of civilian causalities caused by all sides, a spread of insecurity to previously stable areas, and increasing attacks against aid agencies and their staff.

Their statement on the Protection of Civilians in Afghanistan can be accessed via www.acbar.org