British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

Duration of war: 8 years, 4 months
Troops in theatre: 9,500
Fatalities at 17th Mar 2010: 275
Casualty data analysed to: Feb 28th 2010
UK military casualties in 2008: 1,924
UK military casualties in 2009: 2,808
UK military casualties in 2010: 228*
Total UK casualties: not released by MOD

The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated every month when data becomes available. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD, its potential to mislead and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of war to British forces and is useful for following trends in the conflict.

*A full breakdown of casualty figures is provided in the table below.
NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.



The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. The 3 month moving average indicates the trend in combat casualties. As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.


The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aero-medical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may now be approaching 7,000.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in October 2001. A very low level of casualties is seen following the invasion until 2006, when the conflict and British involvement significantly escalates. The last column of the chart shows the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

Lastly, the table below shows a summary of the available MOD casualty statistics for 2001 - 2009.

Table: Summary of Ministry of Defence Statistics on British Casualties in Afghanistan (October 2001 - February 28th 2010)

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Fatalities	0	3	0	1	1	39	42	51	108	21
Very-Seriously Injured	0	1	0	3	2	18	23	27	83	17
Seriously Injured	0	0	1	3	0	13	40	38	75	7
Field-Hospital Admissions	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	240	832	1,008	1,229	179
Aero-medical evacuations	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	262	572	800	1,313	209
Totals	0	4	1	7	3	572	1,509	1,924	2,808	433

Source: Ministry of Defence
n/a - Data not available from MOD

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of February 2010

An updated analysis of casualty data for British forces in Afghanistan has been posted, covering the period up to the end of February, 2010. The data presented includes the start of operation Moshtarak.

Estimating the number of civilian deaths from armed conflicts: How to fill the information void?

A research paper on estimating civilian deaths during armed conflict has recently been published in The Lancet medical journal. The paper looks at conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan and a new method for estimating civilian fatalities. This involved building a statistical model from the results of surveys that measured mortality and met certain quality criteria. In all, 107 surveys reported mortality data from Darfur between 2003 and 2008 and the researchers were able to include 63 of these results in their statistical model. [The Lancet]

In an accompanying commentary the limitations of the available data and analysis approach is discussed. Checchi points out that although the number of surveys available from Darfur seems large, they included only 16% of person-time at risk. This, he argues, is an indicator of the information gap that remains to be filled in nearly all large scale crises. Further, "..this limitation suggests the usefulness of mapping information coverage in real time to draw attention to regions where information is lacking or outdated, and to coordinate efforts to gather data. A corollary initiative would be to track the number and location of conflict-affected people in real time." [The Lancet]

What is striking is the paucity of mortality survey data collected on the conflicts covered by this site, namely Afghanistan and Iraq, compared to that in Darfur. Between 2007-2009, the period in Afghanistan when fighting escalated markedly, no mortality survey data has been gathered. Attempts to document civilian fatalities rely on case-by-case investigations by organisations such as the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commissions [AIHRC]. Such approaches are almost inevitably going to result in partial coverage and under-estimation of the fatality burden. In addition, fatalities represent just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the total casualty burden, and there seems to be no attempt at all to try and estimate this larger figure in the civilian population.

As Checchi says in his introduction:

"Imagine that you are helping a population cope with the health effects of armed conflict, but have no information about whether their health is improving or not, or whether your programmes adequately address their burden of disease.

...Systematic measurement, analysis, and programmatic use of essential health indicators (mortality rate, prevalence of malnutrition, and coverage of essential services such as vaccination, and water and sanitation) remain the exceptions, despite being predicated in various manuals, policy documents, and meetings."

There are, of course, many reasons why it is so difficult for public health professionals to collect and document information of the health impacts of conflicts such as Afghanistan. However, in cases where initiation of the conflict has been actioned or facilitated by the UK government it must surely have a special responsibility to ensure that reliable data on health impacts are collected and made publicly available, so that humanitarian relief efforts can be appropriately planned. When access by independent scientists is made impossible by insecurity then that role, arguably, should be temporarily assigned to the military. Embedded-journalists are of course notorious for producing one-sided and partial coverage of wars news. Could embedded-epidemiologists, following transparent and internationally recognised approaches produce credible data? Its a big question, but given the massive information gap that currently exists, it must surely be worth exploring.

(NB The side bar links to other key research articles and data sources have been updated, with the removal of some dead links and re-focusing of others on the most relevant pages.)

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of January 2010

An updated analysis of casualty data for British forces in Afghanistan has been posted, covering the period up to the end of January, 2010. The data presented is for the period before the start of operation Moshtarak and so does not capture the recent increase in casualties. Nonetheless, levels remain elevated, as they have been since mid-2009.

The summary statistics for total annual casualties now includes all the data categories that are published by the MoD. These are shown in full in the summary table at the bottom of the post.

Afghan Casualties Increasing in Helmand Province as US/UK Prepare for Major Assault

The International Committee of the Red Cross are reporting that even before the initiation of Operation Moshtarak an increase in Afghan casualties is being seen in the affected areas of Helmand Province.

"The current upsurge in military operations in Helmand, particularly in the districts of Marjah, Nadali, Sangin, Nari Saraj and Lashkar Gah, has resulted in a marked increase in the number of casualties requiring emergency medical treatment.

...Over the past few weeks, staff working at the ICRC's first-aid post in Marjah have been seeing increasing numbers of war casualties, although not as many as might be expected given the scale of the fighting. Civilians and injured fighters are finding it more and more difficult to go to places where they can obtain urgently needed medical care, owing to mounting security problems and numerous roadblocks and checkpoints throughout Helmand province. It is especially difficult for people coming from rural areas to reach Helmand's capital, Lashkar Gah, where there are two hospitals. Those who do manage to reach a medical facility often succeed in doing so only after long delays.

The ICRC reminds the Afghan security forces, the international forces and the armed opposition that the sick and wounded – whether they be civilians or fighters, regardless of which side they are on – must be cared for with the least possible delay, in accordance with international humanitarian law. No distinction must be made among them on any grounds other than medical ones."

[ICRC]

Operation Moshtarak: Ministry of Defence warns about expected increase in British Casualties

The Ministry and Defence is warning of an expected upsurge in British casualties as a large offensive becomes imminent.

"People should be prepared for British casualties resulting from the upcoming major offensive in Helmand province, Operation MOSHTARAK, which will involve thousands of ISAF troops clearing parts of central Helmand of insurgents, Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth has said.

While minor operations involving British troops as part of the initial 'shaping' phase of Operation MOSHTARAK have been taking place, the major 'clearing' phase of the operation is yet to begin." [MOD]

Less attention has been given to the expected increase in Afghan casualties, both civilian and combatant. However, large scale population displacement appears to be occurring and British sources are briefing about the inevitability of civilian casualties. [CBC, Independent]

British Casualties in the Iraq War: A summary

A summary table of British military casualties during the Iraq war has now been added to the Iraq casualty page. The total of the casualties recorded between March 2003 and July 2009 stands at 5,970. It should be noted that data is not complete due to Ministry of Defence delays in publication of figures during the conflict.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

Conflict initiated: March 2003
Casualty data analysed to: July 31st 2009
UK military fatalities: 179
Reported UK military casualties: 5,970
Total UK casualties: not released by MOD

Below, we present a series of graphs that show the available official UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) data on casualties in Iraq. The MOD stopped releasing casualty updates after July 2009 which is where our analysis also stops. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information on casualties during conflict. Our ongoing analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last few years there have been improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards. We now also know that the data that was provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict.

The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September 2006 up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September 2007. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished with a small peak associated with fighting in early 2008. Since then casualties have remained very low with no combat fatalities reported since February 2009.


The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aero-medical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may be close to 6,000. These data are also tabulated below.

This total casualty figure is not necessarily excessive - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities, serious, injuries and very serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. Casualties in 2008 and 2009 have remained very low up to the end of MOD casualty data reporting.

The last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

Lastly, the table below provides a summary of the official MOD figures on British casualties.

Table: Summary of Ministry of Defence Statistics on British Casualties in Iraq

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Totals
Fatalities	53	22	23	29	47	4	1	179
Very-Seriously Injured	14	14	5	11	24	5	0	73
Seriously Injured	32	31	15	21	45	4	1	149
Field-Hospital Admissions	n/a	n/a	n/a	1,302	1,300	778	218	3,598
Aero-medical evacuations	n/a	n/a	n/a	701	603	433	234	1,971
Totals	99	67	43	2,064	2,019	1,224	454	5,970

Source: Ministry of Defence
n/a - Data not available from MOD

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to end of 2009

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of 2009 has now been posted for British forces in Afghanistan. A new summary data table has been added in addition to the usual charts.

The analysis indicates the marked and sustained elevation of British casualties during the second half of 2009.

Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan Rise to New High in 2009

New statistics released by the UN mission in Afghanistan today showed that 2009 proved to be the deadliest year yet for civilians since the fall of the Taliban government in 2001. According to their figures, at least 5,978 civilians were killed and injured in 2009. Afghans in the southern part of the country, where the conflict is the most intense, were the most severely affected.

The UN mission recorded 2,412 civilian deaths during 2009, up by 14 per cent from 2008 when the mission recorded 2,118 civilian deaths. Of the 2,412 deaths reported last year, 1,630 (67%) were attributed to anti-Government elements while 596 (25%) were attributed to pro-Government forces. The remaining 186 deaths (8%) could not be attributed to any of the conflicting parties as they died as a result of cross fire or by unexploded ordinance.

It is worth noting from the above figures that the ratio of injured to dead is only 1.5, indicating that substantial under reporting of injuries has almost certainly occurred.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in conjunction with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), called on all sides of Afghanistan's conflict to uphold their obligations under international law and minimize the impact of fighting on civilians.

Ms Norah Niland, Chief Human Rights Officer said called for determined efforts by the insurgency to put into effect the Taliban "Code of Conduct" that calls on them to protect the lives of civilians.

She also said "However despite positive trends, actions by pro-Government forces continued to take an adverse toll on civilians; we recorded 359 civilians killed during aerial attacks, which constitute 61 per cent of the number of civilian deaths attributed to pro-Government forces. International and Afghan security forces also conducted a large number of search and seizure operations. These often involved excessive use of force, destruction of property and cultural insensitivity, particularly towards women."

[UNAMA] [Full Report (PDF)]

British Withdrawal from Basra: Impact on Casualties and the Chilcot Enquiry

The Iraq War Enquiry has recently heard some details regarding the widely known, but often denied, ceasefire that was negotiated by the British with the al-Mahdi army in 2007. This halted the heavy and persistent rise in British casualties that was occurring at the time. Following the conclusion of the ceasefire the British then withdrew from Basra City at the start of September 2007. The successful conclusion of the negotiations avoided the British having to withdraw under fire.

To reflect this public admission of the negotiated ceasefire the annotation of the graph of British fatalities and serious injuries casualties has been amended. The graph illustrates just what difficulties British forces were experiencing prior to the cease fire and how important those negotiations were in preventing further loss of life. The graph has also been updated on the main Iraq monitoring page.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Analysis up to November 30th 2009

Analysis of casualty data up to the end of November has now been published for British forces in Afghanistan.

The analysis shows the continued elevation of British casualties with a third successive monthly increase.