British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for first half of June 2008

Updates of casualty data up to June 15 2008 have now been published for British forces in Afghanistan. This extra half month update has been posted due to the recent upsurge in UK casualties.

Unfortunately, fatality updates and casualty analysis for the second half of June and July may be delayed until mid-August due to other commitments, but we will update the data as soon as possible. Thank you for bearing with us.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Afghanistan

Troops in theatre: 7,800
Duration of war: 6 years, 8 months
UK military fatalities: 110
Last reported death: 28th June
Casualty data available to: June 15
UK military casualties in 2007: 1442
UK military casualties in 2008: 713*
Total war casualties: data not released

The graphs below are compiled from official Ministry of Defence data and aim to illustrate the current situation and recent trends in British casualties in Afghanistan. They are updated as and when data is released by the MOD. The fatality count given above is updated on a daily basis. We are fully aware of the limitations in the data released by the MOD and its incompleteness. Nevertheless, the official data does provide the best available measure of the cost of war to British forces and is useful for following trends in the conflict.

The analysis and format used here is the same as for the Iraq casualty monitoring page. Comparison between the two conflicts is therefore relatively straight forward and the summary graphs indicate, that in both theatres, British troops experienced a significantly higher burden of casualties in 2007 compared to previous years. The situation in 2008 remains unstable and unpredictable, with further heavy fighting in Afghanistan combined with strategic adaptation by anti-UK forces, and the continuing presence of British troops in southern Iraq. The recent spike in British fatalities in the Afghan war will be reflected in the statistics for June.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest MOD reporting period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

Remembering Iraq on World Refugee Day

On June 20th it is World Refugee Day [UNHCR]. Amnesty International are calling for notice to be given to the fact that there are now almost two million Iraqi refugees, fleeing murder, kidnap, torture and ill treatment, the majority of which are now living in Syria and Jordan. [Amnesty International]

They point out that international assistance for Iraqi refugees is desperately needed, due to inadequate contributions to UN agencies working with refugees. In May this year, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) made a fresh appeal for increased funding for its Iraq work. Citing a shortfall of $127 million for assistance programmes, they raised the prospect of essential health and food assistance programs being reduced, which in turn may force many Iraqis into further destitution and increase the likelihood of higher malnutrition rates and increased child labour [UNHCR].

To end on a brighter note, Iraqi oud (lute) player Naseer Shamma has raised more than US$ 24,000 for UNHCR's Iraqi refugee programme with a concert at the Damascus Opera House [UNHCR].

British Casualties in Iraq - Updates for May 2008

Updates of casualty data for May 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Iraq. Figures show a continued fall in casualty numbers during this period with no reported fatalities or serious injuries for the second month in a row. British casualties in Iraq are now running at a significantly lower rate than for forces in Afghanistan. A projection for the rest of 2008 suggests that annual UK casualties in Iraq may be the lowest since the war began.

British Casualty Monitor: Tracking the war in Iraq

Number of troops in theatre: 4,000
Duration of war: 5 years, 3 months
UK military fatalities: 176
Last reported death: 26th March
Casualty data analysed to: May 31
UK military casualties in 2007: 1950
UK military casualties in 2008: 524*
Total war casualties: data not released

Below, we present a regularly updated series of graphs that show the available official UK MOD data on casualties in Iraq. We hope that making the data available in this format will aid people in understanding the casualty burden experienced by UK armed forces, provide an indication of the trends in the conflict, and also expose the continuing need for the MOD to improve their performance in providing full and accurate information. Our analysis of casualties in the war in Afghanistan is also available.

During the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) has been reticent in publishing details of British casualties, as well as figures for casualties of other nationalities. Previous efforts to improve transparency and accountability have been documented on this site along with debates in academic journals, and attempts by the mainstream media to ascertain the true extent of the casualty burden. Over the last five years there have been marked improvements in reporting and the MOD does now publish fortnightly updates of casualties for both Iraq and Afghanistan. However, there are still serious problems with the accuracy and incompleteness of the information they release.

*The figures for British casualties in 2007 and 2008 are the sum of fatalities, field hospital admissions and medical evacuations up to the end of the latest MOD reporting period.

NB To enlarge the graphs for easier reading click on any of the images. All Casualty Monitor graphics can also be accessed here.

The first chart provides a monthly breakdown of casualties officially recorded by the MOD as being due to direct action, i.e. fighting. We now know that the data provided by the MOD is far from complete, so the absolute figures presented here should be treated with caution. However, what these data are useful for is assessing trends in the conflict. The 3 month moving average indicates a marked and steady increase in the intensity of the conflict from September last year up until the ceasefire agreed with the main elements of the resistance in the south, and the withdrawal of British troops from Basra City in September. British casualties rose steadily up until the withdrawal and then fell very sharply as the fighting abruptly diminished.

As information was only made available on a monthly basis by the MOD from April 2006, the figures are shown from this date onwards.

The second chart shows the figures for total casualties reported by the MOD. Due to the way the figures are presented in the MOD reports, it is impossible to be sure whether, and to what extent, double counting may be occurring. For example, soldiers admitted to field hospitals may also be classified as serious or very seriously injured, and could also, in principle, be counted in the aeromedical evacuation figures. However, from the publicly available data it is just not possible to know and we therefore present the sum of the different categories. As such, the figures represent the upper range of the official total casualty count. Nonetheless, the data illustrate that from since the beginning of 2006 until now, total casualties may be approaching 4,500.

This is not necessarily out of the bounds of possibility - indeed, a figure of 6,700 casualties was previously reported for the period from the invasion up to March 2006. Interestingly, the data on which this earlier assessment was made is no longer available on the MOD web site.

The third chart summarises the available data on fatalities and serious injuries since the war began in March 2003. A marked decline in these casualties is seen following the invasion until 2005. The trend reverses in 2006 and accelerates during 2007. The last column of the chart will show the casualties projected for the current year. This extrapolation is simply based on the average number of casualties suffered each week so far this year, multiplied by fifty-two.

The last graph shows the monthly fatality rate suffered by British troops in Iraq since the invasion in 2003. The risk of death remained under 10 per thousand per year until 2007 when fatality rates climbed sharply, until the troops were withdrawn from Basra. The advantage of viewing the fatality rate, rather than just the absolute number of deaths, is that it represents the actual risk experienced by troops on the ground and is independent of the number of troops deployed. Data on troop deployments in Iraq was compiled from the MOD and Hansards.

The above graphs are updated after the MOD has released data for a complete month. Fatality figures are updated on a daily basis as news is available. For information on casualties suffered by the US and other members of the occupying force we recommend Coalition Casualty Count.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for May 2008

Updates of casualty data for May 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Afghanistan. Please bear in mind that the data from May does not include the recent sharp upturn in British fatalities.

The trend in combat casualties remained steady between January and April with a suggestion of a slight downwards trend. However, this trend has reversed in May and indications are that the conflict may now be entering a new phase in terms of the casualty risk for UK forces.

Four British Troops Killed in Afghanistan

In the largest loss of life experienced by British forces so far this year, 4 soldiers were killed by an explosion near Lashkar Gah in Afghanistan yesterday. [MOD]

In the last ten days, 9 British troops have been killed in the Afghan war.

Britain to Increase Troop Numbers in Afghan War

Within a few days of the deaths of five paratroops in the Helmand province the UK is planning to increase its deployment in Afghanistan. [BBC Online]

Update: The statement by Defence Secretary Des Browne to Parliament on Monday 16 June 2008 can be read here.

US Kill 11 Pakistan Troops in Border Airstrike

From BBC Online

Pakistan's military has condemned an air strike by Afghanistan-based US forces that killed 11 of its troops as a "cowardly attack". The incident happened inside Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan, as US-led forces tackled pro-Taleban militants.

The US military confirmed it had used artillery and air strikes after coming under fire from "anti-Afghan" forces. It comes amid rising tensions between the US and Pakistan militaries.

British Death Toll Reaches 100 in Afghanistan

Three British paratroopers were killed by a suicide attack in Afghanistan on Sunday, bringing the total UK deaths so far to 100.

It is notable that although the war started nearly 7 years ago, almost all the British casualties have occurred in the last three years. Further, while it is the fatalities that make the news, the much larger numbers of injured and seriously injured casualties are hardly mentioned. For example, in 2008 alone, up to the end of April, total UK military casualties are estimated to number approximately 284.

British Casualties in Afghanistan - Updates for April 2008

Updates of casualty data for April 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor projects for British forces in Afghanistan. The trend in combat casualties has remained steady since the start of the year with a slight decrease in MOD classified combat casualties in April. However, field hospital admissions peaked at over a hundred in April, the highest level since April last year.

British Casualties in Iraq - Updates for April 2008

Updates of casualty data for April 2008 have now been published by the casualty monitor project for British forces in Iraq. Apologies for the delay in pasting the April updates. Figures show a marked fall in casualty numbers for this period with no reported fatalities or serious injuries. This appears to correspond to the fall off in fighting in Basra City.